";s:4:"text";s:4801:" Extrapolating the loss of jobs would mean an unemployment rate of close to 12% and a U-6 rate of 39%.Even if Shedlock is wrong by half, that unemployment number ALREADY is staggering. I was previously CEO of the American Bureau of Economic Research. A recession is a cyclical financial process inherent in the business cycle. “If we get into an environment where we just see transmission occur more quickly and we don’t have a widespread antiviral treatment or vaccine, that would really lengthen the recovery period,” he said.To be sure, some hallmarks of the current economic catastrophe already bear an uncomfortable resemblance to those of nearly a century ago.
Especially with the threat of viral recurrences and subsequent outbreaks, “I can certainly believe people are going to want a little bit more of a nest egg socked away,” he said.Economists speculate that a flight to caution on a scale not seen since the World War II era could alter how Americans approach everything from home buying to saving for retirement — potentially threatening the rebound in consumer spending that drives domestic economic activity. “The biggest risk is that the fixed income markets, corporate debt mostly, and equities are going to start to move together,” he said. Seriously. Today, there are a host of policies in place designed to prevent the economy from sinking into a years-long slump like the Depression, when one in four workers were jobless, many households lost their savings when banks collapsed and the stock market lost nearly 90 percent of its value.In addition, both the Great Depression and the Great Recession were kicked off by asset deflation. Each week, nearly a million readers around the world receive my Thoughts From the FrontlineI am a financial writer, publisher, and New York Times bestselling-author. But those assumptions could be upended. The U.S. is facing a deflationary depression. I think the most likely scenario is that we avoid a depression, but the risks are awfully high.” “Really, the key thing is going to be virus spread,” as the country inches towards reopening, said Eric Freedman, chief investment officer at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
A depression is entirely different.
We the People, the government collectively, should step in to help the remainder of those people. As the Memorial Day holiday nears and business and consumer activity are reestablished, he said the economy can expect to regain some momentum — albeit at a slower rate than pre-COVID.But Zandi added one significant, worrisome caveat. It is inevitable, stabilizing and somewhat painful. “After the Depression, we had a whole generation of people who were more likely to save for a rainy day,” said Joseph Mason, professor of finance at Louisiana State University. We've put together the latest news about the coronavirus recession, where to find help, what makes a recession and the government's response. “All of those things need to be rebuilt, and it doesn’t happen overnight,” White said.And this could fundamentally change the way Americans relate to money for decades to come.
I’m also the proud father of seven children.Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. The coronavirus is not their fault.Nobody in their right mind, given what might happen this week, can possibly think these employment numbers will not get worse.I am not the first person to say it, but we need something like a Marshall Plan for the U.S.I recognize that Europe and the rest of the world are struggling too.
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